Issued on 22 December 2015
Ni?o remains near its peak, with the tropical Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere consistent with a strong event. Models suggest event will start to decline in 2016, but a return to ENSOneutral is not likely until at least autumn.
Sea surface temperatures and cloud patterns near the Date Line remain well in excess of El Ni?o thresholds.The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to El Ni?o levels following a brief period of neutral values.Below-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific remain significantly warmer than average, but clearly somecooling has occurred in the past fortnight. Changes in the sub-surface are an important indicator,as the sub-surface plays a significant role in maintaining the strength and longevity of El Ni?o events.
El Ni?o's influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in past events depending on how quickly the event breaks down. Both daytime and overnight temperatures tend to be warmer than average during an El Ni?o summer. For more information, see the official rainfall and temperature outlook.
The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However,Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.
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